SC
SolarWinds Corp (SWI)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 revenue was $200.0M (+6% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $96.0M (48% margin), and non-GAAP EPS $0.27 — all above the high end of management’s Q3 guidance, reflecting strong subscription-first execution and disciplined cost control .
- Subscription ARR grew 36% YoY to $289.5M; Total ARR rose 8% YoY to $724.1M; recurring revenue reached 94% of total, with maintenance renewal rates of 96% in-quarter and 97% trailing 12 months .
- Guidance raised: Q4 revenue $201–$204M, FY24 revenue to $788–$791M; FY adjusted EBITDA to $376–$379M; FY non-GAAP EPS to $1.08–$1.09 — signaling confidence in execution despite a cautious macro backdrop .
- Potential stock catalysts: broad-based beat vs company guidance, continued ARR momentum, and product updates (Observability renaming/expansion and GenAI features) that support consolidation/ASP uplift narratives .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Delivered revenue and adjusted EBITDA above guidance; CEO: “We delivered another solid quarter, once again highlighted by total revenue and adjusted EBITDA above the high end of our guidance range” .
- Subscription momentum: Q3 subscription revenue +30% YoY to $76.5M; Subscription ARR +36% YoY to $289.5M; recurring revenue mix 94% — CFO highlighted 1,100 customers >$100K ARR (+18% YoY) and sustained ARR growth .
- Platform/product updates: Observability rebranded and enhanced; management emphasized closing the “hybrid observability gap” and AIOps advancements to cut alert fatigue and time-to-resolution, plus GenAI-enabled ITSM driving ASP uplift in premium packages .
What Went Wrong
- Legacy revenue headwinds: Maintenance revenue fell 5% YoY to $110.6M amid conversions to subscription; license revenue down 10% YoY to $12.9M; these trends reflect the subscription-first transition but weigh on legacy lines .
- Ongoing Cyber Incident/legal costs: Non-GAAP excludes “Cyber Incident costs, net”; risk factors include SEC enforcement action and potential costs/penalties; G&A includes Cyber Incident costs in reconciliations .
- Analyst concern (prior quarter): subscription revenue appeared flattish sequentially vs strong ARR — management cited rev-rec timing differences for on-prem subscription (HCO) and expected back-half increase; Q3 subscription revenue inflected to $76.5M .
Financial Results
Core P&L and Profitability (YoY and Seq)
Revenue Mix
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Actual vs Company Guidance (Q3 2024)
Note: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable for SWI due to mapping constraints; estimate comparisons are anchored to company guidance [GetEstimates error].
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on beat and strategy: “We delivered another strong quarter, once again exceeding our guidance across our key metrics… subscription revenue growth of 30% and subscription ARR growth of 36%” .
- On closing the observability gap: “We designed our observability solutions to close the hybrid observability gap and give our customers unified visibility across on-premises and cloud environments” .
- AI/ITSM monetization: “Gen AI capabilities… are part of our service desk solutions premium package and result in higher average sales prices” .
- CFO on profitability and leverage: “Adjusted EBITDA… $96 million… 48% margin… net leverage ratio… ~2.8x… we will look for opportunities to further reduce our variable interest rate” .
- CEO on customer consolidation: “Customers… use our platform to consolidate their tools, lower TCO and increase visibility across their environments” .
Q&A Highlights
- Demand backdrop: Management characterized demand as stable; beats driven by execution and value to installed base plus new customers .
- Guidance philosophy: CFO emphasized prudence and confidence in deliverability; tracking external signals and performance; non-GAAP tax rate 26% for Q4 .
- Go-to-market evolution: New CRO to expand partner/GSI channels while preserving inside sales strengths and expense-to-bookings discipline .
- GenAI monetization: GenAI features included in premium ITSM package to drive ASP uplift; consumption-based pricing contemplated but not modeled currently .
- Consolidation motion: Both renewal cycles and continuous touch customer success drive consolidation motions, improving share of wallet .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus data for SWI was unavailable due to a missing mapping in our feed at the time of this analysis; therefore, comparisons to Wall Street consensus could not be provided. As an alternative, we benchmarked actual results against company guidance, which showed beats on revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS [GetEstimates error] .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Subscription-first transformation is working: strong ARR growth, rising recurring mix, and sustained maintenance renewals underpin resilience and revenue visibility .
- Profitability remains a differentiator: 48% adjusted EBITDA margin and raised FY24 EBITDA guidance support cash generation and deleveraging; leverage down to ~2.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA .
- Beat and raise quarter: Q3 delivered above guidance with Q4 and FY24 outlook raised — a positive narrative catalyst in a cautious macro .
- Product momentum: Observability renaming and capability expansions, plus AIOps/GenAI features, bolster consolidation/ASP uplift opportunities across on-prem and SaaS .
- Transition headwinds manageable: Maintenance/license declines are consistent with conversion strategy; subscription revenue should benefit as conversions broaden across geographies/partners .
- Debt structure improved: July refinancing cut spreads and extended term; management continues to seek lower variable rates — a tailwind for net interest expense over time .
- Modeling 2025: Management suggests using implied Q4 exit growth rate as baseline; continued focus on ARR, profitability, selective investments and partner-led reach .
Appendix: Non-GAAP Considerations
- Non-GAAP metrics exclude stock-based comp, amortization, acquisition/other costs, restructuring costs, and “Cyber Incident costs, net”; adjusted EBITDA further excludes interest, taxes, FX, and debt-related costs. Reconciliations provided in the press release .